Despite Risk, Braves Fill Need With Upton - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Despite Risk, Braves Fill Need With Upton Stuck

Posted on November 29, 2012 at 08:14 AM.

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Evidently, the industry of Major League Baseball has lost the meaning of the phrase fiscal restraint. With the hot stove season just beginning to percolate, teams are making use of the extra television revenue that was received before the winter. Thus far, most teams are showing a willingness to spend. The Reds inked Jonathan Broxton to a three year, $21 million deal. The Royals are paying Ervin Santana $12 million and just gave Jeremy Guthrie $25 million over three years. Torii Hunter got $28 million while Jeremy Affeldt got $18 million.

Money doesn�t seem to be an issue this winter. The Atlanta Braves joined the big spending bonanza by signing center fielder BJ Upton to a five year, $75 million deal. Upton, entering his age 28 season, has always been an intriguing talent. He gives the Braves lineup a power threat from the right side, something that is needed as the Braves� power sources come from lefthanders Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and Freddie Freeman. He comes cheaper than the Braves former centerfielder Michael Bourn would have, but the Braves do pay more than most thought for Upton.

That doesn�t necessarily make the deal a poor one. The Braves are paying Upton for his complete prime. They won�t be paying for a season that should see Upton age poorly. And, there is still some sort of hope for Upton to still have potential.

The word potential is always dangled around Upton. His physical tools are amazing. He can hit for power. He runs well. He throws well. But, those tools haven�t all translated to the results. At some point, a player can no longer be associated with potential. BJ Upton is right at that point. Upton�s inconsistency has plagued his results and makes him a bit of a risk for the Braves.

On the positive, he is very durable as he has played in at least 144 games in every season since 2008. Since that 2008 season, his home run power has improved each year. He�s stolen at least 31 bases, hit at least 24 doubles, and has increased his total bases in each season.

The negative side has quite a bit to do with consistency and discipline. His walk rate has declined in each year since 2008. He walked a career high 97 times in 2008 which was his second consecutive season of posting an on base percentage over .380. Unfortunately, it is the last season that he has posted an on base percentage over .330. With his decrease in walks--down to a career low 45 in 2012--and his high strikeout totals, Upton is less of an offensive threat than he was when he was 22 and 23 years old. For his career, Upton has struck out at a 25% rate. But, last season saw a rise to 26.7 percent a sign of perhaps growing impatience or trying too hard to hit home runs in a free agent season.

Last season, he swung at 75 percent of all pitches in the strike zone while also swinging at 51.4 percent of all pitches, all career highs. By comparison, the league averages are 64 percent and 52 percent respectively.

Surprisingly, defensive metrics do not favor Upton. After posting elite UZR seasons from 2007 through 2009, Upton has been rated as a tick above average in 2010 and 2011 and below average in 2012 (minus-2.4 UZR). Defensive runs saved has never rated Upton highly. Since 2009 when he was a replacement level defender according to the metric, he hasn�t posted a positive season according to DRS. It is odd that a player who has such a great defensive reputation is so poorly rated by the metrics. Defensive metrics have a long way to go, but the Braves are replacing the best defensive center fielder according to the metrics with one of the poorest. It likely isn�t that big of a drop off, especially when factoring in Upton�s strong arm, but it is something to watch for.

Despite all of the potential negatives, the signing could still be a good one for the Braves as long as they don�t stop here. Upton�s production, at the very least figures to remain at this current level for the life of the contract. Even if he becomes a liability in center field, he still hits with enough power to be a legitimate left fielder.

And, of course, there is always that potential thing with Upton. Even at 28 and with the large sample size of inconsistent play, there is still a possibility that Upton improves. If he can refocus his plate discipline and his power continues to grow, Upton could be that speed-power threat that many believed he would be. Again, he is at the point where potential is no longer a fitting description. But, perhaps a move to the National League and a better offensive home park combined with a better approach can vault Upton into realizing all that potential.

At quick glance, it looks like the Braves paid too much for Upton. But, this winter, it looks to be what the market is. Upton had a few factors in his favor: age, position, skills, and that potential word. And, he has some pretty good timing. Although the centerfield market is deep, Upton is the youngest, the only power-speed combination, and likely the cheapest.

The Braves improve their power from the right side and no longer have to count on Dan Uggla to be that one lineup balancing player. It is a good signing as long they add another right handed power bat to play left field (or third base) and don�t count on BJ Upton in the leadoff spot. Because of his lack of discipline and his high strikeout total, the leadoff spot is not for Upton, even if he does have the speed for it. The Braves don�t have a prototypical leadoff hitter unless they sign a left fielder who fits that role. But, if they don�t sign that type of player, they should not misuse Upton there. He just isn�t a fit there.

The Braves get a player who doesn�t figure to regress over the life of the contract. They get a player who hits for power, can steal bases, and has a reputation of playing good defense. They may regret the $15 million annual salary and committing five years, but the risk is minimized because of his age and his power. If he produces like he has over the past four years, he will be more than adequate. But, if he can find consistency, the Braves will get value for what they are paying. If not, they paid $75 million for a .240 hitter.

Comments

# 1 WaddupCouzin @ Nov 29

UZR ratings are trash! dude is an excellent centerfield. Nobody ran on dude and when they did, gunned. Plus, he covered more ground than a little bit. Part of his average issues is because he played in a poor offensive team and had no protection behind him or trying to do too much. I'm not saying he's going to be a .300 hitter but I think he can get to.270. Plus the Trop is a pitchers park, period. It's going to make good hitters look average unless they're Adrian Beltre...lol. Between him and Crawford having an outfield tandem stealing close to a 100 base combined is nothing to sneeze at and will be greatly missed in Tpa.

# 2 Gary Armida @ Nov 30

Valid points there. I wouldn't call UZR trash, but I do get its limitations. I am a bigger believer in defensive runs saved and Upton is not ranked highly at all, which did surprise me. But, I do see the change in park really helping him too. Good stuff.

# 3 Bunselpower32 @ Dec 1

I just don't see how you can justify paying a .245 hitter 15 mil for 5 years. And its not a Ryan Howard .245, either, he has no slugging and no OBP. He has the talent, no doubt, he showed it in 2008, but at this point, I would pay him half of this. At 28, your potential is no longer worth 15 million dollars, especially with the Braves MLB prospect factory. And you can't use the "he didn't have any protection" argument when he only draws 45 walks.